Every winter in the northern hemisphere, cold winds circulate around the Arctic like water around a bank. It’s an annual weather pattern that meteorologists watch with concern – any major changes could indicate Europe is on its way to a dangerous cold snap. For now, that wind is tearing in two.

Researchers from the universities of Bristol, Exeter, and Bath have come up with a new way to predict the indirect effects of the various changes in the elevated main air stream in the region. Stratosphere, 10 to 50 kilometers (6 to 30 miles).

Ironically, this cold is caused by a sudden explosion of heat that seeps into rotating currents through a window for only 24 to 48 hours.

As it warms up to 40 ° C, the vortex undergoes some rapid changes, changing its course or separating dramatically into small eddies that move against the surrounding atmosphere.

The results can be devastating. Just a few years ago, a sudden Stratospheric Up (SSW) event drove the frozen polar air from Siberia to Europe, giving rise to a snow-filled cell of high pressure, which the media called Beast of the east.

The shock of icy weather was centered over Scandinavia, casting a frozen shadow in the far west of the UK Contribute to transportation chaos And even a number of deaths.

However, not all transitions in this polar vortex end with freezing conditions. Two years ago, a warming in the stratospheric polar winds preceded one of the warmest winter days in recorded UK history.

Knowing which aberrations are harbingers of winter’s rage, and which ones will fade, will go a long way in making the weather forecast more accurate.

READ  경찰은 병원 직원이 15 년 동안 일을하지 않았음에도 불구하고 거의 65 만 달러를 벌었다고 말했다.

Surprisingly, stratospheric greenhouse events themselves are not entirely rare, with records indicating that about half a dozen of them occur in the Arctic vortex every decade.

“While a very cold weather event is not certain, about two-thirds of cold weather temperatures have a significant impact on surface weather,” Says Richard Hall, meteorologist at the University of Bristol and lead author of the new study.

Observations dating back more than six decades have provided researchers with 40 patterns of oscillations and defections in the Arctic stratospheric vortex, which inform a tracking algorithm that tries to predict the impact of each type of change on weather systems across the Northern Hemisphere. .

The results indicate that any time the polar vortex splits into two smaller winds, we can expect more intense cooling events, compared to other SSW anomalies.

It’s a timely result, with changes to air currents expected over the weekend.

“As expected, atmospheric observations now show that the stratosphere in the Arctic is undergoing a sudden warming event associated with the weakening of the polar stratosphere,” Says Adam Skiff, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the UK Met Office.

Moreover, the change has all the hallmarks of a more severe type of SSW, which means there is a good chance that the expected temperature drop will be significant.

Having thoughtful climate models definitely helps improve the odds of knowing what to expect. But while modeling on this scale benefits from improved algorithms, there is still room for a lot of uncertainty when it comes to coding down the finer details in the coming days.

READ  터키 유조선 교착 상태, 러시아의 석유 제재에 포효

Strangely, it may turn out that Europe is sweating instead of shivering.

The UK saw a record high in winter warmth after the summer winters in February 2019, so the Met Office is not ruling out the possibility of a similar heat in the coming weeks.

Although the long cold and snow wave that occurred in February and March of 2018 – which the British media called the ‘Beast from the East’ – were associated with a sudden rise in the stratosphere, the record warmth of February 2019 was also followed by an event. , Says Meteorologist Matthew Lienert.

We have some way to go before we can confidently promise the way the weather will go in the wake of these polar changes.

But tools like this new algorithm will improve guesswork possibilities, and will continue to do so as we learn more about our atmosphere.

“Despite this progress, many questions remain about the mechanisms that cause these dramatic events, and how they might affect the surface, so this is an exciting and important area for future research,” Says Mathematician William Seavey of the University of Exeter.

This research was published in JGR Ambiance.

답글 남기기

이메일 주소는 공개되지 않습니다. 필수 필드는 *로 표시됩니다

You May Also Like

법적 이민 제한에 따라 최소 근로자 비자 급여가 인상됩니다.

2023년 12월 4일, 12:03 GMT 23분 전에 업데이트됨 정부는 기록적인 합법적 이민…

독일 극우파는 집권당의 쇠퇴로 이득을 얻었지만, 유럽연합(EU) 선거에서는 보수주의자들이 전진했다.

베를린(AFP) – 독일의 인기 없는 집권당은 부진한 결과를 보였으며 극우 정당인 독일을…

푸틴, 우크라이나 합병 기념일을 맞아 크리미아 방문

블라디미르 푸틴 러시아 대통령이 2022년 6월 30일 투르크메니스탄 아슈하바트에서 정상회담 후 언론에…

새로운 노동 불안이 중국의 거대한 Foxconn iPhone 공장을 뒤흔들었습니다.

온라인 사진은 수백 명의 노동자가 항의하는 모습을 보여줍니다. 감시 카메라와 창문은 막대기로…