Fifty-nine percent of all transmissions came from people without symptoms, according to the model’s baseline scenario. This includes 35 percent of new cases from people who infected others before they developed symptoms and 24 percent of people who had no symptoms at all.

“The whole point is to control the Covid-19 pandemic. It will really require controlling the silent epidemic of transmission of infection from people without symptoms,” he said. Jay C. Butler, Deputy Director of the CDC for Infectious Diseases and co-author of the study. “Community-based mitigation tools that we need to use on a large scale to be able to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from all infected people, at least until these vaccines are widely available.”

The appearance of a A more contagious variant, Which was first discovered in the UK and has since been found in several US states, the importance of these guidelines receives in a more apparent dilution. “These results are in bold, italic, and underlined,” Butler said. “We have moved from the 11 point line to the 16 point line.”

Scientists say the coronavirus variant discovered in the UK is more transmissible but does not make people sicker. (Washington Post)

The epidemiologist said: “It’s definitely a confirmation, but it’s good to see confirmation.” Richard Menzies, Who runs the McGill International TB Center in Canada and was not involved in this research. “These are powerful and believable results.”

Many factors influence how the Coronavirus spreads. The researchers took a recognized, uncomplicated approach – Butler called it a “fairly simple mathematical model” – and used this to evaluate several scenarios, changing the infectious period and the rate of transmission of people who had no symptoms at all.

READ  미국, 의료 순위에서 꼴찌

The model consistently predicted that asymptomatic spread accounted for roughly half of the virus transmission. “I was a little surprised at how long it persisted under a wide range of underlying assumptions,” said Butler, such as changing the timing of the infection peak from four days after infection to five or six days.

But Moog CivicAn infectious disease expert at the University of St Andrews in Scotland has argued that some of the model’s assumptions are flawed. Civic said the best estimate of the relative infection of people without symptoms versus those with them was 35 percent, derived from Scientific literature review Posted in September.

Instead, the study authors estimated that, at baseline, people without symptoms were 75 percent contagious. Butler said the number came from an analysis of their literature including peer-reviewed research and prepress research. “I have no doubt that we still have someone say, ‘Well, what if I did such-and-such-y or z-do? “But we hope that being able to adjust variables helps address some of those concerns, like what we did.

One of the first coronavirus hotspots, Albany, Ja, is a predominantly black city that has struggled for decades against social and economic inequality. (Washington Post)

Cevik also noted that the study does not take into account the environment in which diffusion occurs. “Asymptomatic transmission may be important, but it may be more important in long-term care facilities and families,” she said. “It could mean that we need to do more targeted testing for high-risk populations,” rather than a blanket screening.

It is not yet certain whether vaccines stop transmission of the coronavirus or not, and a scenario has not been addressed in this model. “The data on the effect of vaccines on asymptomatic infection is very limited,” Butler said, although he expected more information in the coming months.

READ  백악관, 바이든의 우크라이나 미사일 배제 결정에 반발

Clinical trials of mRNA vaccines, which were authorized in December, concluded that the vaccines are High capacity To prevent symptomatic disease. But those experiments did not determine whether the vaccinated people were able to spread the pathogen.

Menzies warned that “if symptoms are asymptomatic but equally contagious, this will have a major impact on the epidemic.” That is why it is so important to continue testing people, especially those who have been vaccinated and then exposed to the virus, he said.

답글 남기기

이메일 주소는 공개되지 않습니다. 필수 필드는 *로 표시됩니다

You May Also Like

이스라엘, 서안지구 C구역 팔레스타인 거점 1000채 확장

극적인 움직임으로 Benny Gantz 국방부 장관은 1,000채의 주택으로 C 지역의 팔레스타인 거점을…

이스라엘과 하마스 간의 전쟁 실시간 업데이트: 이스라엘, 가자 시티에 대한 통제 강화

베냐민 네타냐후 이스라엘 총리는 일요일 가자 지구에서 전쟁 후 군사적 책임을 인계하고…

Justin Trudeau는 캐나다 선거에서 비싼 값으로 승리했습니다.

오타와 – 저스틴 트뤼도 총리가 자신의 국가 역사에서 “중추적인 순간”이라고 말한 선거…

양측은 몰도바 분리 지역 군사기지 폭발에 대해 책임을 교환했다.

몰도바 분리 지역인 트란스니스트리아의 친러시아 분리주의 당국은 일요일 군사 기지에서의 폭발이 우크라이나에서…